My most recent post is titled “Mathematics of a Triple Whammy: How the Combination of the Comey Letter, Voter Suppression and Fake News Tilted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College to Trump
I started the site primarily to place a paper on Teacher’sIncrement Costs on the Web so that it could get maximum exposure. Over time I added a paper on Obamacare as the ACA was in its infancy. I then added a paper on my genealogy. Shortly after the 2016 Presidential Election as issues of Fake News and Russian hacking came to the forefront I wrote a paper titled “Mathematics Shows That Fake News Elected Trump as President. The new post (Triple Whammy), first one listed, is a more detailed and totally revamped version of this earlier paper. As the national and international fury arose over the Trump Executive Order on Extreme Vetting (also known as the Muslim Ban) I was moved to think of how concern for security led to catastrophic events for my own ancestry in North America. That led to the paper that is now second in the sequence. I have reorded the sequencing of the various papers. Currently my site has 11 entries as follows:
1. About the Author
2. Mathematics of a Triple Whammy: How the Combination of the Comey Letter, Voter Suppression and Fake News Tilted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College to Trum
3. .Trump: the Muslim Ban and the Lessons of History- The Historical Clash Between Security and Human Rights
4. Mathematics Shows That Fake News Elected Trump as President
5. Misleading Polls in Public’s Views on Obamacare
6 A Simple Analogy for Understanding the Cost of Steps
7. Fallacy of Required “New Money” to Fund Teacher Increments and Other Progressive Pay Systems
8. Fallacy Of Increment Costs-Experience In Jefferson County, Kentucky
9. Increment (Progressive Pay ) Cost Misperception-Power Point Presentation
10. An Analysis of Harford County Education Budgeting and Expenditures on Wages and Salaries for Fiscal Years 2009 to 2014 and the Implications for “No New Money Needed to Fund Increments”
11. Breaux Family Vignette
Each entry has a brief summary followed by a file with the details . The entries can be accessed by scrolling forward.
The Trump Muslim Ban Paper and the 1st Fake News paper contain an abstract paragraph as the brief summary.
Regarding the ACA or Obamacare
The paper was written at the initiation of the ACA and discussed the issues of the time with a focus on the forces seeking to kill the initiative. While dated its message is timely given the effort underway to Repeal and Replace.
Regarding Progressive Pay and Teacher Increments:
My beef is that school districts, with special emphasis on Harford County Maryland Public Schools (HCPS), have for years mischaracterized or misinterpreted the required “new money” costs for providing progressive pay [increments,longevity and lane change(ILL)]. A similar situation is true for other County employees, including deputy sheriffs, library workers,Community college staff. Overstating the costs has provided a rationale for withholding progressive pay in five of the last six years for teachers and seven out of eight years for deputy sheriffs. I address this issue in-depth and assert that turnover (from retirements and dropouts) is an integral part of the dynamics of progressive pay and establish with a detailed model and extensive parametric analysis that the projected payroll changes arising from providing ILL is bounded by + or minus .5% (1/2 percent) of reference year payroll given the same number of Full Time Equivalents(FTE’s).
The paper (7th entry below) titled “ Fallacy of Required….” is long, largely because of the extensive input data and parametric analysis that I included. However, the subject is so important that I think addressing it in detail should (hopefully) be of value not only in my local County but nationally. If you are skeptical of my thesis I particularly recommend you read Appendix B, page 76, in the paper and my correspondence with Brent McKim in the 8th entry listed below.
I would appreciate any comments.
Harold Breaux January 23, 2018