Thanks For Visiting My Web Site

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Istarted the site primarily to place a paper on Teacher’sIncrement Costs on the Web so that it could get maximum exposre.  Over time I added a paper on Obamacare as the ACA was in itsinfancy. I then added a paper on my genealogy. Recently as issues of Fake News and Russian hacking came to the forefront I wrote a paper titled “Mathematics Shows That Fake News Elected Trump as President. “As the national and international fury arose over the Trump Executive Order on   Extreme Vetting (also known as theMuslim Ban) I was moved to think of how concern   for security led to catastrophic events for my own ancestry in North  America. That led to the paper that is now first in the sequence. I have reordered the sequencing of the various papers. Currently my site has ten entries as follows:

1.Trump: the Muslim Ban and the Lessons of History- The Historical Clash Between Security and  Human Rights

2. About the Author

3. Mathematics Shows That Fake News Elected Trump as President

4. Misleading Polls in Public’s Views on Obamacare

5 A Simple Analogy for Understanding the Cost of Steps

6. Fallacy of Required “New Money” to Fund TeacherIncrements and Other Progressive Pay Systems

7. Fallacy OFIncrement Costs-Experience In Jefferson County, Kentucky

8. Increment  (Progressive Pay )  Cost Misperception-Power Point Presentation

9.  An Analysis of Harford County Education Budgeting and Expenditureson Wages and Sa;aries for Fiscal Years2009 to 2014 and the Implications for “No New Money Needed to Fund Increments”

10. Breaux Family Vignette

Each entry has a brief summary followed by a file with the details . The entries can be accessed by scrolling forward.

The Trump Muslim Ban Paper and the Fake News paper contain an abstract paragraph as the brief summary.

Regarding the ACA or Obamacare

The paper was written at the initiation of the ACA and discussed the issues of the time with a focuson the forces seeking to kill the initiative. While dated its message is timelygiven the effort underway to Repeal and Replace.

Regarding Progressive Pay and Teacher Increments:

My beef is that school districts, with special emphasison Harford County Maryland PublicSchools (HCPS), have for yearsmischaracterized or misinterpreted the required “new money” costs forproviding progressive pay [increments,longevity and lane change(ILL)]. Asimilar situation is true for other County employees, including deputy sheriffs, library workers,Community college staff. Overstating thecosts has provided a rationale for withholding progressive pay in five of thelast six years for teachers and seven out of eight years for deputy sheriffs. I address this issue in depth and assert thatturnover (from retirements and dropouts) is an integral part of the dynamics ofprogressive pay and establish with a detailed model and extensive parametricanalysis that the projected payrollchanges arising from providing ILL isbounded by + or minus .5% (1/2 percent) of reference year payroll given the same number of Full Time Equivalents(FTE’s).

The paper (7th entry below) titled “ Fallacy of Required….” is long, largely because of the extensiveinput data and parametric analysis that I included. However, the subject is so important that Ithink addressing it in detail should (hopefully) be of value not only in mylocal County but nationally. If you areskeptical of my thesis I particularlyrecommend you read Appendix B, page 76, in the paper and my correspondence withBrent McKim in the 8th entry listed below.

I would appreciate any comments.

Harold Breaux February 1, , 2017

Trump: The Muslim Ban and the Lessons of History

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The current presidential directive generally referred to as Extreme Vetting and/or the Muslim Ban is examined in the context of its rationale being that of security. Its opponents suggest it was poorly planned and executed and in its implementation has the likelihood of major human rights violations and being unconstitutional. . This paper suggests that the lessons of history were ignored and how those lessons might have provided caution and guidance if the president was an avid student of history. Four examples of how concerns for security in the U.S. and North America led to extreme measures which in the historical aftermath were universally decried by historians and citizenry in general because of their catastrophic impact on human rights.
Trump and the Muslim Ban.pdf

About the Author: Harold J. Breaux

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My posts focus on politics, events of national and Maryland importance, frequently with more analysis than is usual for such a forum, including mathematics and statistics. Accordingly, my bio “About the Author” focuses on the details of my experience as an analyst using mathematics to forge an understanding of issues that otherwise might not be appropriately understood.

Harold J. Breaux
January 8, 017

About The Author Harold J. Breaux.pdf

Fake News Elected Trump

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The phenomenon ofFake News, aimed at voters in the Presidential Election of 2016 is examined from the standpoint of voting results, demographics ofvoters usage of social media as source of news, slanting statistics of FakeNews on social media platforms and dataon voters propensity or inclination tobe swayed by Fake News. A mathematical model is derived to estimate how voteswere thus swung to both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by idealogues andentrepeneurs (and possibly Russia). The model focuses initially on theaggregation of votes needed to swing theElectoral College votes from Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but uses anationwide proportionality analysis for the eventual model. The end result isconclusive. Fake News led to the Electoral College Victory of DonaldTrump. A remarkable numerical resultfrom the model is that the percentage of swing votes lost toClinton (1.07 %), (based onthe reported values of 17% of social media readers having a propensity toswitch after reading Fake News), when added to her actual popular vote marginof 2.22%, equals a margin of 3.29%. This compares to the aggregateor average final poll prediction results of 3.3% for Clinton reported by RealClear Politics [10]. So as not to rely on a single estimate of propensity toswitch, a parametric analysis isconducted varying this factor. Theanalysis shows that this factor can be as low as 2.4% and still be sufficient to switch 379,000votes nationally, the amount needed proportionally to swing the 39,000 votes inMichigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that gave Trump the Electoral Collegevictory.

Fake News Elected Trump.pdf

Paper on the Fallacy of New Money Needed for Budgeting for Progressive Pay for Teachers (Increment Costs)

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The continued and repeated misperception of the new money needed to fund experience increments for teachers (and others) prompted this writer to go to the lengths contained in this paper to tie down the subject hopefully once and for all. For those not inclined to delve through or follow the mathematics of this paper several shorter, simpler papers are provided on this site. The original posting of this paper mysteriously disappeared from this blog and is reposted. and repositioned.

Math of Budgeting for Experience Increments.pdf

A Simple Analogy for Understanding the Added Cost of Steps

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I sent this simple analysis to Harford County, Maryland budget authority officials in February 1979 seeking to have them correct their erroneous claim regarding the “new/additional money” needed to provide steps or increments for teachers and other personnel.

Because Harford County officials have continued to make similar false assertions ( circa 2014-2016) regarding the added cost , this retired mathematician has examined the issue anew (this time more formally), created a web site, and placed the analysis therein. Hopefully the widespread and readily available analysis will work toward officials ceasing to make false claims and accordingly chose to treat its employees fairly by routinely providing steps or increments since the added cost is negligible-as proven by the author’s analysis.

Harold j. Breaux
October 24,2016
Simple Analogy for Unerstanding Added Cost of Steps.pdf